The overseas tariff policy was officially implemented, and the steel market sentiment declined significantly

In the early morning of April 3, the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" of the United States were implemented, and reciprocal tariffs were imposed on multiple countries, including 34% on China. Since the beginning of this year, the United States has imposed tariffs on China up to 54%, of which steel and aluminum products have increased by 45%. The official implementation of the overseas tariff policy has led to a decline in the sentiment of the steel market. The main reasons are as follows:
The futures market performed poorly: On April 9, the main contract of rebar futures 2510 continued to fall, hitting a new low since the end of June 2017; the main contract of hot-rolled coil futures 2510 continued to fall, hitting a new low since the end of September 2024; the main contract of stainless steel futures 2505 hit a new low since early July 2020.
The disturbance at the macro level has increased: the implementation of overseas tariff policies has increased market uncertainty and risk expectations. The escalation of global trade conflicts has caused the market to worry about the supply and demand relationship and price trends in the future steel market.
Pressure on the supply side increased: enterprises that were under maintenance in the early stage have gradually resumed work, and the overall output has shown an upward trend. In the absence of obvious improvement on the demand side, the increase in supply has further aggravated the imbalance between supply and demand in the market, leading to pessimistic market sentiment.
Weak demand side performance: The capital situation of downstream enterprises is relatively tight, resulting in a decrease in overall shipments. At the same time, affected by overseas tariff policies, the export of downstream steel industries such as home appliances and automobiles is restricted, which indirectly affects the demand for steel.
From the market situation, on April 9, the 10 contracts of rebar hot-rolled coils hit a new low in more than half a year, and the price of rebar in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing and other markets fell by 10-50 yuan/ton. Overall, in the short term, the price of steel market is expected to be under downward pressure and the trend is relatively weak.